Since SRAGSpace Radiation Analysis Group console operators have many things to monitor, a goal of the
ISEPIntegrated Solar Energetic Proton Alert/Warning System project is to create "SEPSolar Energetic Proton Scoreboards" that display model results together.
The results of each of the models are separated into three different scoreboards: Scoreboard A, Scoreboard B, and Scoreboard C.
Scoreboard A answers the question, "Will an event occur?". The model from the
ISEPIntegrated Solar Energetic Proton Alert/Warning System project included on this scoreboard is
MAG4.
Also included is the SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Center daily probabilistic
SEPSolar Energetic Proton
forecast. Figure 1 shows a prototype of Scoreboard A. The upper-right display shows the probability of the occurrence of an SPE
Solar Particle Event from each model. As time progresses, the probabilities are continuously updated based on current conditions.
The display on the left shows a heat map that summarizes current probabilities and color-codes them based on severity.
Scoreboard B answers the question, "How intense will the event be?". Models capable of predicting the peak proton flux are displayed on this scoreboard. This includes
SEPSTER, UMASEP, and REleASE. Since actions are required of
SRAG
Space Radiation Analysis Group
console operators when certain operational thresholds are crossed, predictions of peak proton flux give advanced warning time of the possibility of the need to take action.
Scoreboard C answers the question, "How long will the event last?". Models that predict the time profile of
SEPsSolar Energetic Protons are on this scoreboard. This currently includes
SEPMOD and STAT.
The benefit of this scoreboard is that it helps predict how an event will progress over time and includes important quantities such as event onset, rise time, time of the peak flux, and decay time.
Also included on this scoreboard are GOES ≥10 MeVMega Electron Volt, ≥50
MeVMega Electron Volt, and ≥100 MeVMega Electron Volt
integral proton channels for comparison to real-time observations.
An all-clear display is also included in each scoreboard. For Scoreboard A, an all-clear in given when the probability of
SPESolar Particle Event
occurrence is below a designated threshold. For Scoreboard B and C, an all-clear is given when the predicted proton flux is below operational thresholds. These thresholds are the following:
All model results displayed on the SEPSolar Energetic Proton Scoreboards are automated and running continuously at the
CCMCCommunity Coordinated Modeling Center. More information on the scoreboards can be found here:
SEP Scoreboard
